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可转债】关于研究方法论的探析

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 21:22:16
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VG平台注册平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。可转债】关于研究方法论的探析

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(相)(反)(,当)(转)(股)(价)(成)(功)(下)(修)(后)(,若)(该)(标)(的)(对)(应)(的)(正)(股)(价)(格)(也)(同)(步)(地)(呈)(现)(企)(稳)(上)(涨)(,则)(平)(价)(便)(没)(有)(下)(跌)(空)(间)(了)(得)(以)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,叠)(加)(此)(时)(较)(低)(的)(转)(债)(估)(值)(,转)(债)(价)(格)(会)(呈)(现)(大)(幅)(反)(弹)(。比)(如)(常)(熟)(转)(债)(在)(今)(年)(下)(半)(年)(进)(行)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(,而)(该)(下)(修)(时)(段)(正)(好)(是)(正)(股)(企)(稳)(反)(弹)(期)(,转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(成)(功)(后)(呈)(现)(的)(结)(果)(非)(常)(显)(著)(,转)(债)(价)(格)(持)(续)(大)(幅)(反)(弹)(。而)(在)(已)(经)(退)(市)(的)(转)(债)(个)(券)(中)(,也)(均)(能)(见)(到)(此)(类)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(时)(机)(掌)(握)(得)(非)(常)(不)(错)(的)(标)(的)(。
这)(也)(就)(意)(味)(着)(那)(些)(高)(估)(值)(的)(转)(债)(个)(券)(并)(不)(是)(没)(有)(机)(会)(——首)(先)(,当)(一)(只)(转)(债)(个)(券)(达)(到)(较)(高)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(的)(时)(候)(,如)(果)(未)(来)(其)(对)(应)(正)(股)(上)(涨)(,则)(会)(自)(然)(地)(推)(动)(平)(价)(上)(升)(,转)(债)(估)(值)(将)(得)(以)(被)(动)(地)(消)(化)(至)(正)(常)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,若)(此)(后)(平)(价)(仍)(然)(继)(续)(上)(涨)(,转)(债)(估)(值)(持)(续)(地)(下)(降)(,便)(能)(得)(以)(吸)(引)(资)(金)(持)(续)(地)(流)(入)(,转)(债)(估)(值)(也)(将)(会)(反)(过)(来)(开)(始)(上)(升)(,转)(债)(价)(格)(也)(会)(开)(始)(企)(稳)(回)(暖)(;此)(外)(,如)(果)(像)(上)(述)(的)(转)(债)(个)(券)(那)(样)(,发)(行)(人)(此)(时)(再)(成)(功)(进)(行)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(,效)(果)(就)(会)(更)(好)(,而)(这)(方)(面)(,从)(转)(债)(发)(行)(人)(意)(愿)(来)(说)(,很)(大)(一)(部)(分)(发)(行)(人)(其)(实)(最)(终)(想)(要)(促)(成)(转)(股)(以)(完)(成)(低)(成)(本)(融)(资)(的)(愿)(望)(是)(较)(为)(普)(遍)(的)(,那)(么)(在)(正)(股)(上)(涨)(的)(时)(机)(中)(,如)(果)(转)(股)(价)(再)(配)(合)(下)(修)(,平)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(动)(能)(将)(非)(常)(强)(劲)(,转)(债)(价)(格)(便)(会)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,能)(很)(好)(地)(促)(进)(转)(股)(条)(件)(的)(达)(成)(,因)(此)(通)(常)(来)(说)(,发)(行)(人)(在)(其)(正)(股)(上)(涨)(时)(期)(下)(修)(转)(股)(价)(其)(实)(是)(一)(个)(更)(可)(行)(也)(更)(有)(动)(力)(的)(方)(案)(。
由)(此)(我)(们)(可)(以)(得)(知)(,在)(上)(述)(这)(类)(评)(估)(高)(估)(值)(转)(债)(个)(券)(的)(投)(资)(价)(值)(、转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(的)(可)(能)(性)(以)(及)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(后)(的)(收)(益)(空)(间)(的)(方)(面)(,也)(都)(绕)(不)(开)(分)(析)(该)(个)(券)(在)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(前)(的)(平)(价)(上)(涨)(动)(力)(强)(弱)(以)(及)(在)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(后)(平)(价)(继)(续)(上)(涨)(的)(空)(间)(的)(问)(题)(,这)(是)(最)(终)(能)(取)(得)(多)(少)(收)(益)(的)(最)(关)(键)(因)(素)(。
总)(而)(言)(之)(,无)(论)(是)(判)(断)(低)(估)(值)(还)(是)(高)(估)(值)(转)(债)(投)(资)(机)(会)(的)(时)(候)(,最)(核)(心)(的)(出)(发)(点)(其)(实)(都)(落)(不)(到)(估)(值)(本)(身)(,最)(终)(,相)(比)(于)(任)(何)(时)(候)(都)(是)(静)(态)(的)(当)(前)(的)(转)(债)(的)(估)(值)(数)(据)(,平)(价)(运)(动)(的)(方)(向)(和)(幅)(度)(对)(转)(债)(投)(资)(起)(着)(更)(为)(关)(键)(的)(作)(用)(,是)(决)(定)(转)(债)(在)(未)(来)(水)(平)(下)(便)(宜)(与)(否)(的)(核)(心)(因)(素)(。
这)(种)(逻)(辑)(会)(在)(稀)(缺)(性)(持)(续)(下)(降)(的)(转)(债)(市)(场)(中)(更)(为)(重)(要)(。2017年)(11月)(前)(,转)(债)(市)(场)(一)(般)(存)(量)(个)(券)(数)(量)(仅)(数)(十)(只)(,但)(从)(2017年)(11月)(开)(始)(,转)(债)(发)(行)(上)(市)(持)(续)(放)(量)(,短)(短)(不)(到)(一)(年)(时)(间)(,截)(止)(2018年)(10月)(23日)(,存)(续)(转)(债)((公)(募)(,包)(含)(eb)个)(券)(数)(量)(已)(经)(扩)(充)(到)(109只)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(转)(债)(的)(稀)(缺)(性)(下)(降)(了)(,供)(需)(矛)(盾)(下)(,原)(先)(水)(平)(上)(便)(宜)(的)(估)(值)(相)(对)(变)(贵)(了)(,很)(多)(转)(债)(个)(券)(变)(得)(开)(始)(长)(时)(间)(地)(保)(持)(较)(低)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,连)(新)(券)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(也)(下)(降)(了)(,打)(新)(策)(略)(业)(已)(失)(效)(。在)(稀)(缺)(性)(无)(法)(提)(供)(额)(外)(的)(估)(值)(支)(撑)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,其)(实)(平)(价)(的)(相)(对)(重)(要)(性)(还)(更)(高)(了)(。
因)(此)(总)(的)(来)(说)(,转)(债)(投)(资)(者)(最)(好)(不)(要)(仅)(凭)(转)(债)(估)(值)(高)(低)(来)(判)(断)(最)(终)(投)(资)(收)(益)(空)(间)(的)(高)(低)(,即)(使)(短)(期)(投)(应)(该)(更)(注)(意)(对)(后)(续)(平)(价)(方)(向)(的)(判)(断)(,避)(免)(高)(弹)(性)(、跌)(幅)(也)(较)(偏)(债)(性)(转)(债)(更)(大)(的)(可)(能)(——仅)(凭)(估)(值)(买)(入)(转)(债)(和)(凭)(平)(价)(判)(断)(买)(入)(转)(债)(,风)(险)(水)(平)(是)(不)(一)(样)(的)(,前)(者)(的)(下)(跌)(空)(间)(会)(相)(对)(大)(。
二)(、平)(价)(判)(断)(方)(法)(探)(析)(
那)(么)(第)(二)(点)(就)(是)(要)(讨)(论)(平)(价)(判)(断)(的)(方)(法)(。
2.1
转)(债)(和)(纯)(信)(用)(债)(在)(分)(析)(投)(资)(上)(的)(区)(别)(
首)(先)(要)(辨)(析)(的)(一)(点)(就)(是)(尤)(其)(对)(于)(固)(收)(投)(资)(研)(究)(者)(们)(来)(说)(,需)(要)(区)(分)(信)(用)(债)(研)(究)(和)(转)(债)(研)(究)(,不)(要)(单)(纯)(平)(移)(研)(究)(方)(法)(。
我)(们)(从)(平)(价)(公)(式)(分)(拆)(,就)(能)(得)(知)(平)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(拉)(动)(力)(主)(要)(来)(自)(两)(个)(方)(面)(:
第)(一)(个)(方)(面)(就)(是)(来)(自)(于)(下)(修)(条)(款)(触)(发)(后)(的)(转)(股)(价)(成)(功)(下)(修)(——在)(相)(同)(的)(正)(股)(价)(位)(下)(,更)(低)(的)(转)(股)(价)(格)(意)(味)(着)(更)(高)(的)(平)(价)(。而)(这)(方)(面)(的)(研)(究)(需)(要)(着)(重)(去)(跟)(踪)(下)(修)(条)(件)(的)(满)(足)(进)(度)(——当)(市)(场)(环)(境)(较)(好)(的)(时)(候)(,当)(有)(下)(修)(预)(期)(时)(就)(可)(进)(行)(博)(弈)(,转)(债)(价)(格)(会)(提)(前)(上)(涨)(;另)(外)(,最)(终)(也)(要)(看)(股)(东)(大)(会)(能)(否)(决)(议)(通)(过)(下)(修)(议)(案)(,研)(究)(者)(可)(以)(分)(析)(股)(东)(结)(构)(、特)(征)(和)(相)(关)(意)(愿)(来)(博)(弈)(转)(股)(价)(成)(功)(下)(修)(的)(可)(能)(概)(率)(。
第)(二)(个)(方)(面)(即)(正)(股)(走)(势)(。在)(转)(股)(价)(不)(变)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,平)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(动)(力)(主)(要)(来)(自)(于)(正)(股)(拉)(动)(的)(贡)(献)(;此)(外)(,如)(果)(转)(股)(价)(下)(修)(,或)(能)(在)(短)(期)(内)(大)(幅)(影)(响)(平)(价)(上)(涨)(,但)(在)(下)(修)(落)(实)(后)(,转)(股)(价)(又)(继)(续)(保)(持)(不)(变)(,因)(此)(此)(后)(的)(平)(价)(变)(动)(仍)(然)(主)(要)(受)(到)(正)(股)(走)(势)(影)(响)(。
而)(在)(分)(析)(正)(股)(方)(面)(,相)(关)(研)(究)(重)(点)(应)(和)(信)(用)(债)(研)(究)(有)(所)(不)(同)(。
投)(资)(者)(买)(入)(权)(益)(资)(产)(,未)(来)(便)(是)(作)(为)(股)(东)(身)(份)(获)(益)(,收)(益)(的)(本)(质)(来)(源)(其)(实)(是)(盈)(利)(、利)(润)(增)(长)(。同)(时)(,国)(内)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(估)(值)(体)(系)(,通)(常)(也)(和)(利)(润)(密)(切)(相)(关)(,最)(常)(用)(的)(PE指)(标)((Priceearningsratio),就)(是)(根)(据)(每)(股)(市)(价)(和)(每)(股)(盈)(利)(的)(比)(值)(去)(衡)(量)(这)(只)(股)(票)(的)(估)(值)(,如)(果)(预)(计)(未)(来)(企)(业)(的)(净)(利)(润)(将)(下)(降)(,那)(么)(通)(常)(从)(预)(期)(来)(说)(,其)(估)(值)(水)(平)(就)(有)(先)(行)(下)(行)(的)(可)(能)(。
但)(我)(们)(很)(多)(固)(收)(投)(资)(者)(容)(易)(从)(信)(用)(债)(研)(究)(角)(度)(直)(接)(作)(出)(对)(正)(股)(的)(结)(论)(。债)(券)(投)(资)(者)(的)(角)(色)(其)(实)(是)(债)(权)(人)(,未)(来)(收)(益)(的)(主)(要)(来)(源)(其)(实)(是)(利)(息)(回)(报)(和)(本)(金)(的)(回)(收)(,那)(么)(对)(应)(所)(要)(研)(究)(的)(关)(键)(因)(子)(其)(实)(是)(债)(务)(风)(险)(的)(高)(低)(和)(未)(来)(利)(率)(水)(平)(的)(相)(关)(变)(化)(情)(况)(。
显)(然)(,这)(是)(两)(个)(不)(同)(的)(研)(究)(侧)(重)(点)(,债)(务)(和)(盈)(利)(这)(两)(者)(之)(间)(没)(有)(必)(然)(联)(系)(——一)(家)(公)(司)(当)(前)(债)(务)(水)(平)(较)(高)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(除)(债)(务)(负)(担)(以)(外)(,影)(响)(利)(润)(水)(平)(的)(可)(能)(还)(包)(括)(如)(需)(求)(增)(长)(等)(各)(种)(因)(素)(,那)(也)(就)(意)(味)(着)(最)(后)(实)(际)(上)(的)(利)(润)(的)(增)(长)(是)(有)(可)(能)(超)(过)(债)(务)(增)(长)(本)(身)(的)(,并)(且)(,有)(时)(可)(能)(正)(是)(这)(家)(企)(业)(看)(准)(时)(机)(抓)(住)(机)(遇)(进)(行)(扩)(张)(便)(有)(了)(显)(著)(高)(于)(同)(行)(的)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(。因)(此)(,这)(两)(者)(最)(好)(综)(合)(起)(来)(看)(,而)(且)(侧)(重)(点)(应)(该)(各)(有)(倾)(斜)(。如)(果)(固)(收)(投)(资)(者)(仅)(仅)(平)(移)(信)(用)(债)(研)(究)(结)(论)(去)(定)(论)(权)(益)(资)(产)(,通)(常)(情)(况)(下)(,其)(所)(投)(资)(的)(确)(会)(是)(一)(家)(信)(用)(风)(险)(较)(低)(的)(公)(司)(,但)(并)(不)(见)(得)(能)(够)(获)(得)(很)(好)(的)(正)(股)(和)(转)(债)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(带)(来)(的)(投)(资)(收)(益)(,如)(果)(有)(所)(获)(益)(可)(能)(也)(只)(是)(本)(次)(碰)(巧)(撞)(对)(了)(盈)(利)(波)(段)(。
总)(的)(来)(说)(,平)(价)(判)(断)(的)(研)(究)(逻)(辑)(不)(应)(完)(全)(等)(同)(于)(信)(用)(债)(研)(究)(逻)(辑)(,对)(于)(固)(收)(投)(资)(者)(需)(要)(尤)(其)(注)(意)(避)(免)(单)(纯)(平)(移)(相)(关)(的)(分)(析)(研)(究)(方)(法)(——信)(用)(风)(险)(分)(析)(并)(不)(应)(该)(占)(据)(主)(导)(位)(置)(,更)(不)(应)(该)(是)(“仅)(有)(此)(项)(”。
2.2
“自)(上)(而)(下)(”还)(是)(“自)(下)(而)(上)(”
那)(么)(,当)(我)(们)(建)(立)(起)(了)(以)(盈)(利)(为)(核)(心)(的)(转)(债)(研)(究)(视)(角)(后)(,接)(下)(去)(的)(问)(题)(其)(实)(就)(是)(企)(业)(业)(绩)(的)(研)(究)(方)(法)(。
在)(这)(方)(面)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(比)(较)(关)(键)(的)(可)(能)(是)(对)(“自)(上)(而)(下)(”和)(“自)(下)(而)(上)(”研)(究)(角)(度)(的)(辨)(析)(。
一)(般)(来)(说)(,对)(于)(投)(资)(持)(有)(周)(期)(或)(者)(说)(负)(债)(周)(期)(无)(法)(以)(三)(五)(年)(以)(上)(计)(的)(投)(资)(者)(们)(来)(说)(,“自)(上)(而)(下)(”的)(方)(法)(——即)(先)(宏)(观)(再)(微)(观)(的)(分)(析)(模)(式)(可)(能)(会)(比)(“自)(下)(而)(上)(”的)(在)(业)(绩)(体)(现)(上)(会)(好)(得)(多)(。
纵)(观)(历)(史)(和)(同)(期)(大)(类)(资)(产)(,某)(种)(长)(线)(走)(牛)(的)(资)(产)(,其)(实)(是)(非)(常)(稀)(缺)(、千)(万)(里)(挑)(一)(的)(。大)(部)(分)(资)(产)(上)(涨)(的)(逻)(辑)(都)(很)(难)(在)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(切)(换)(后)(依)(旧)(持)(续)(,而)(那)(些)(能)(进)(行)(长)(线)(价)(值)(投)(资)(的)(资)(产)(便)(是)(稀)(缺)(在)(它)(们)(得)(以)(成)(功)(穿)(越)(了)(那)(个)(三)(五)(年)(以)(上)(时)(间)(周)(期)(中)(的)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(的)(切)(换)(,说)(得)(更)(明)(白)(一)(点)(,即)(那)(段)(时)(间)(周)(期)(并)(没)(有)(能)(切)(换)(到)(能)(使)(这)(样)(资)(产)(走)(熊)(的)(宏)(观)(逻)(辑)(,即)(无)(论)(宏)(观)(如)(何)(调)(整)(变)(化)(,依)(旧)(对)(应)(的)(是)(该)(资)(产)(的)(上)(涨)(逻)(辑)(。
但)(对)(更)(多)(资)(产)(来)(说)(,是)(很)(难)(遇)(到)(这)(样)(三)(五)(年)(以)(上)(天)(时)(地)(利)(人)(和)(的)(机)(遇)(,持)(续)(一)(年)(都)(已)(非)(常)(不)(错)(。因)(此)(,更)(多)(时)(候)(判)(定)(何)(时)(介)(入)(何)(时)(离)(开)(是)(至)(关)(重)(要)(的)(,因)(为)(在)(一)(个)(短)(周)(期)(中)(好)(的)(时)(点)(选)(择)(其)(实)(直)(接)(对)(应)(着)(相)(对)(收)(益)(的)(高)(低)(。成)(功)(选)(择)(一)(个)(最)(能)(发)(挥)(公)(司)(所)(长)(、最)(能)(体)(现)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(的)(时)(点)(是)(对)(投)(资)(最)(大)(化)(公)(司)(价)(值)(的)(诉)(求)(的)(充)(分)(满)(足)(。当)(投)(资)(者)(找)(到)(当)(前)(这)(段)(时)(间)(的)(核)(心)(逻)(辑)(,再)(找)(到)(与)(此)(逻)(辑)(契)(合)(的)(企)(业)(,企)(业)(业)(绩)(上)(的)(表)(现)(必)(然)(不)(会)(令)(人)(失)(望)(。那)(么)(很)(显)(然)(,这)(就)(是)(一)(个)(自)(上)(而)(下)(的)(过)(程)(,如)(果)(是)(自)(下)(而)(上)(的)(方)(法)(,在)(找)(契)(合)(性)(方)(面)(并)(不)(能)(非)(常)(到)(位)(。
以)(上)(是)(“自)(上)(而)(下)(”方)(法)(存)(具)(的)(必)(要)(性)(。但)(在)(此)(之)(外)(,还)(有)(一)(个)(细)(化)(时)(点)(的)(过)(程)(,因)(为)(从)(宏)(观)(逻)(辑)(的)(出)(现)(到)(宏)(观)(逻)(辑)(的)(结)(束)(,一)(个)(大)(周)(期)(里)(面)(其)(实)(还)(蕴)(含)(着)(很)(多)(小)(的)(周)(期)(,也)(蕴)(含)(着)(资)(产)(价)(格)(不)(同)(节)(奏)(的)(波)(动)(过)(程)(。很)(多)(投)(资)(者)(的)(确)(在)(相)(应)(周)(期)(内)(选)(到)(了)(对)(应)(的)(企)(业)(,但)(是)(或)(是)(参)(与)(的)(头)(或)(是)(兑)(现)(离)(场)(的)(尾)(显)(得)(难)(以)(把)(握)(,最)(终)(净)(值)(上)(的)(浮)(盈)(无)(法)(充)(分)(兑)(现)(。
在)(这)(方)(面)(的)(提)(升)(上)(,很)(重)(要)(的)(是)(另)(一)(个)(议)(题)(的)(辨)(明)(:即)(如)(何)(去)(跟)(上)(市)(场)(的)(节)(奏)(?
这)(可)(能)(需)(要)(从)(对)(市)(场)(更)(内)(涵)(的)(理)(解)(中)(去)(思)(索)(答)(案)(。
实)(际)(上)(,我)(们)(所)(学)(的)(所)(有)(关)(于)(投)(资)(的)(理)(论)(知)(识)(都)(是)(一)(个)(理)(想)(状)(态)(里)(的)(情)(形)(状)(况)(。但)(真)(实)(的)(市)(场)(并)(非)(是)(一)(个)(理)(想)(状)(态)(下)(的)(完)(美)(模)(型)(,而)(是)(由)(各)(种)(各)(样)(操)(控)(资)(金)(的)(真)(实)(的)(人)(参)(与)(,那)(么)(市)(场)(必)(有)(人)(性)(主)(导)(的)(部)(分)(,既)(必)(有)(各)(种)(性)(格)(、知)(识)(背)(景)(、思)(维)(模)(式)(的)(碰)(撞)(分)(歧)(,也)(又)(会)(有)(人)(性)(共)(同)(共)(性)(的)(弱)(点)(的)(反)(应)(。从)(某)(个)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,这)(便)(是)(最)(真)(实)(的)(市)(场)(基)(础)(,构)(成)(市)(场)(很)(大)(一)(部)(分)(运)(行)(特)(征)(的)(本)(源)(。
那)(么)(从)(真)(实)(的)(投)(资)(者)(构)(成)(的)(市)(场)(出)(发)(,假)(设)(一)(个)(情)(景)(:当)(投)(资)(者)(通)(过)(种)(种)(调)(研)(和)(分)(析)(研)(究)(,判)(断)(该)(企)(业)(业)(绩)(将)(在)(未)(来)(开)(始)(下)(滑)(,那)(么)(他)(是)(会)(继)(续)(持)(有)(至)(预)(判)(兑)(现)(还)(是)(在)(定)(下)(这)(个)(结)(论)(后)(就)(开)(始)(减)(仓)(呢)(?
综)(合)(来)(看)(,应)(该)(是)(后)(者)(。因)(为)(这)(是)(一)(种)(谁)(行)(动)(迟)(了)(谁)(就)(输)(的)(博)(弈)(。
一)(旦)(市)(场)(中)(有)(个)(人)(有)(了)(下)(跌)(预)(判)(,那)(么)(此)(后)(便)(是)(从)(一)(人)(扩)(散)(至)(一)(致)(预)(期)(的)(过)(程)(了)(,随)(着)(事)(态)(不)(断)(地)(发)(展)(,越)(来)(越)(多)(人)(发)(现)(了)(下)(跌)(逻)(辑)(,资)(金)(便)(会)(不)(断)(地)(加)(入)(减)(仓)(队)(伍)(,因)(此)(这)(项)(资)(产)(的)(高)(点)(通)(常)(在)(预)(期)(兑)(现)(的)(中)(段)(就)(达)(到)(了)(,越)(在)(一)(致)(预)(期)(以)(后)(则)(越)(难)(兑)(现)(盈)(利)(越)(难)(完)(整)(退)(出)(;再)(算)(上)(从)(高)(位)(盘)(整)(至)(预)(期)(兑)(现)(开)(启)(下)(跌)(最)(后)(再)(到)(探)(底)(企)(稳)(的)(整)(段)(时)(间)(长)(度)(,机)(会)(成)(本)(也)(非)(常)(高)(。因)(此)(,我)(们)(往)(往)(会)(发)(现)(,越)(是)(流)(动)(性)(好)(的)(市)(场)(、越)(是)(有)(效)(的)(市)(场)(,越)(是)(提)(前)(反)(应)(预)(期)(,因)(为)(一)(旦)(有)(了)(预)(判)(就)(没)(有)(人)(会)(真)(正)(等)(至)(最)(后)(那)(一)(刻)(,雪)(崩)(一)(旦)(开)(始)(就)(来)(不)(及)(逃)(了)(。
此)(时)(,反)(应)(在)(分)(析)(数)(据)(上)(,也)(会)(呈)(现)(为)(一)(些)(投)(资)(者)(觉)(得)(难)(以)(理)(解)(的)(现)(象)(:即)(虽)(然)(企)(业)(当)(前)(的)(盈)(利)(数)(据)(仍)(然)(不)(错)(,但)(股)(价)(却)(开)(始)(下)(跌)(,正)(股)(估)(值)(也)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(,看)(上)(去)(便)(宜)(得)(不)(可)(思)(议)(,有)(些)(投)(资)(者)(虽)(然)(套)(着)(便)(一)(直)(坚)(信)(能)(够)(再)(涨)(上)(去)(,而)(有)(些)(投)(资)(者)(则)(开)(始)(想)(着)(抄)(底)(。理)(解)(了)(上)(个)(段)(落)(所)(分)(析)(的)(内)(涵)(,就)(能)(理)(解)(发)(生)(这)(一)(现)(象)(的)(原)(因)(和)(过)(程)(,很)(多)(时)(候)(我)(们)(会)(发)(现)(事)(情)(后)(来)(的)(发)(展)(还)(真)(趋)(于)(一)(致)(去)(了)(,最)(终)(在)(盈)(利)(下)(降)(的)(情)(况)(下)(原)(先)(看)(着)(便)(宜)(的)(估)(值)(也)(就)(不)(那)(么)(便)(宜)(了)(。反)(过)(来)(说)(,原)(本)(基)(本)(面)(看)(上)(去)(虽)(然)(没)(那)(么)(好)(,但)(股)(价)(却)(在)(上)(涨)(,也)(很)(有)(可)(能)(是)(预)(期)(先)(行)(反)(映)(,先)(涨)(了)(估)(值)(,再)(等)(基)(本)(面)(逐)(步)(兑)(现)(预)(期)(。此)(间)(逻)(辑)(和)(上)(述)(分)(析)(过)(程)(相)(同)(,资)(金)(一)(旦)(出)(现)(预)(见)(,就)(不)(会)(干)(等)(,呈)(现)(在)(盘)(面)(的)(就)(是)(一)(直)(会)(有)(资)(金)(流)(入)(,直)(到)(最)(后)(一)(致)(预)(期)(去)(兑)(现)(完)(整)(的)(涨)(幅)(。
我)(们)(会)(发)(现)(,从)(某)(种)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,信)(息)(一)(旦)(被)(得)(知)(,市)(场)(必)(然)(会)(有)(所)(反)(应)(,价)(格)(中)(已)(经)(开)(始)(包)(括)(此)(因)(素)(。而)(未)(来)(市)(场)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(是)(对)(未)(来)(预)(期)(作)(选)(择)(、对)(已)(知)(趋)(势)(能)(否)(持)(续)(做)(判)(断)(,而)(并)(非)(对)(已)(经)(兑)(现)(的)(信)(息)(再)(去)(反)(映)(。由)(此)(,我)(们)(得)(知)(预)(见)(的)(重)(要)(性)(——帮)(助)(更)(好)(更)(精)(确)(地)(掌)(握)(资)(产)(价)(格)(运)(行)(的)(节)(奏)(和)(把)(握)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。那)(么)(在)(这)(方)(面)(,首)(先)(,企)(业)(微)(观)(的)(经)(营)(通)(常)(来)(说)(是)(需)(要)(等)(到)(宏)(观)(周)(期)(真)(正)(发)(生)(变)(化)(才)(会)(面)(临)(转)(折)(,如)(果)(视)(野)(越)(大)(,那)(么)(就)(更)(可)(能)(获)(知)(动)(态)(,更)(能)(和)(大)(周)(期)(吻)(合)(抵)(抗)(微)(观)(小)(周)(期)(节)(奏)(不)(同)(带)(来)(的)(信)(号)(混)(乱)(而)(把)(握)(大)(趋)(势)(;其)(次)(,我)(们)(对)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(的)(观)(察)(和)(分)(析)(本)(身)(也)(必)(须)(更)(有)(一)(段)(时)(间)(的)(预)(见)(性)(,不)(能)(等)(到)(宏)(观)(数)(据)(出)(来)(了)(甚)(至)(宏)(观)(影)(响)(已)(经)(发)(展)(走)(到)(了)(中)(观)(、微)(观)(层)(面)(了)(再)(去)(对)(相)(应)(标)(的)(开)(始)(调)(整)(投)(资)(判)(断)(,此)(时)(的)(市)(场)(已)(经)(可)(能)(是)(处)(于)(转)(折)(点)(之)(后)(的)(发)(展)(过)(程)(中)(了)(。
总)(而)(言)(之)(,从)(纯)(信)(用)(债)(研)(究)(的)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,信)(用)(债)(券)(的)(价)(格)(波)(动)(的)(确)(和)(公)(司)(本)(身)(债)(务)(、现)(金)(流)(等)(情)(况)(联)(系)(更)(为)(密)(切)(,仅)(通)(过)(微)(观)(的)(单)(独)(一)(家)(公)(司)(的)(具)(体)(分)(析)(就)(能)(非)(常)(具)(体)(而)(详)(细)(地)(把)(握)(当)(下)(相)(关)(的)(投)(资)(风)(险)(和)(投)(资)(机)(会)(;但)(这)(种)(过)(分)(以)(微)(观)(为)(核)(心)(的)(分)(析)(研)(究)(方)(法)(,不)(是)(非)(常)(适)(合)(在)(以)(平)(价)(为)(核)(心)(的)(市)(场)(阶)(段)(中)(去)(把)(握)(转)(债)(价)(格)(规)(律)(,当)(更)(多)(的)(微)(观)(分)(析)(占)(据)(主)(导)(时)(,整)(个)(分)(析)(便)(过)(于)(静)(态)(,忽)(略)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(的)(变)(化)(,更)(难)(谈)(及)(预)(见)(性)(存)(在)(,这)(种)(研)(究)(方)(法)(下)(的)(转)(债)(和)(权)(益)(资)(产)(的)(投)(资)(容)(易)(周)(期)(性)(地)(遭)(受)(到)(市)(场)(环)(境)(影)(响)(的)(无)(情)(打)(击)(而)(造)(成)(投)(资)(亏)(损)(,而)(且)(很)(容)(易)(被)(大)(趋)(势)(转)(折)(的)(风)(险)(造)(成)(大)(幅)(亏)(损)(。因)(而)(在)(转)(债)(研)(究)(上)(,还)(是)(需)(要)(对)(单)(纯)(平)(移)(信)(用)(债)(的)(研)(究)(方)(法)(有)(所)(警)(惕)(。
2.3
技)(术)(分)(析)(和)(量)(化)(方)(法)(的)(辨)(析)(
另)(外)(,就)(上)(述)(提)(及)(的)(,市)(场)(由)(真)(实)(存)(在)(的)(人)(的)(行)(为)(主)(导)(构)(成)(这)(一)(关)(键)(逻)(辑)(点)(出)(发)(,还)(隐)(含)(了)(其)(他)(重)(要)(信)(息)(,第)(一)(,市)(场)(不)(仅)(仅)(是)(理)(性)(的)(,还)(包)(含)(有)(情)(绪)(、非)(理)(性)(掌)(控)(主)(导)(的)(部)(分)(;第)(二)(,既)(然)(是)(零)(散)(的)(个)(人)(,且)(不)(说)(市)(场)(是)(否)(有)(信)(息)(不)(对)(称)(,就)(市)(场)(中)(的)(人)(获)(取)(信)(息)(后)(做)(出)(反)(应)(的)(时)(间)(也)(必)(有)(先)(后)(;第)(三)(,市)(场)(痕)(迹)(是)(每)(时)(每)(刻)(各)(投)(资)(者)(的)(真)(金)(白)(银)(的)(进)(出)(造)(就)(的)(,其)(实)(特)(别)(真)(实)(。那)(么)(,在)(这)(三)(点)(推)(论)(的)(基)(础)(上)(,我)(们)(还)(能)(得)(出)(一)(个)(结)(论)(:即)(虽)(然)(不)(是)(每)(个)(人)(都)(能)(第)(一)(时)(间)(获)(取)(最)(真)(实)(有)(效)(的)(信)(息)(,同)(时)(我)(们)(也)(很)(难)(掌)(握)(由)(人)(性)(主)(导)(的)(非)(理)(性)(的)(部)(分)(,但)(或)(许)(我)(们)(可)(以)(就)(资)(金)(留)(下)(的)(痕)(迹)(出)(发)(去)(作)(研)(究)(分)(析)(,因)(为)(市)(场)(痕)(迹)(本)(身)(不)(会)(作)(假)(也)(是)(每)(个)(人)(同)(一)(时)(间)(都)(能)(获)(知)(的)(。
由)(市)(场)(痕)(迹)(和)(结)(果)(本)(身)(去)(推)(论)(过)(程)(中)(发)(生)(了)(什)(么)(和)(未)(来)(可)(能)(还)(会)(发)(生)(什)(么)(,这)(种)(思)(路)(有)(别)(于)(传)(统)(分)(析)(方)(法)(,但)(也)(是)(对)(传)(统)(分)(析)(方)(法)(不)(足)(之)(处)(的)(一)(种)(有)(效)(补)(充)(助)(益)(。这)(种)(专)(注)(于)(对)(市)(场)(所)(有)(投)(资)(者)(的)(真)(实)(行)(为)(痕)(迹)(及)(其)(发)(展)(原)(因)(和)(过)(程)(的)(分)(析)(,技)(术)(分)(析)(和)(量)(化)(都)(会)(是)(相)(应)(的)(方)(法)(派)(别)(和)(工)(具)(箱)(之)(一)(。
很)(多)(人)(认)(为)(技)(术)(分)(析)(仅)(是)(一)(个)(历)(史)(会)(重)(演)(的)(逻)(辑)(,是)(完)(全)(关)(于)(相)(关)(性)(的)(东)(西)(。但)(实)(际)(上)(,翻)(看)(一)(下)(技)(术)(分)(析)(经)(典)(作)(品)(日)(本)(蜡)(烛)(图)(的)(描)(述)(,会)(发)(现)(上)(述)(这)(种)(观)(点)(可)(能)(就)(是)(一)(种)(被)(广)(为)(传)(颂)(并)(运)(用)(的)(偏)(见)(,比)(如)(这)(段)(描)(述)(:“吞)(没)(形)(态)(出)(现)(在)(超)(长)(期)(的)(或)(非)(常)(急)(剧)(的)(市)(场)(运)(动)(之)(后)(。如)(果)(存)(在)(超)(长)(期)(的)(上)(升)(趋)(势)(,则)(增)(加)(了)(以)(下)(这)(种)(可)(能)(性)(:潜)(在)(的)(买)(家)(已)(经)(入)(市)(买)(进)(,持)(有)(多)(头)(。在)(这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,市)(场)(可)(能)(缺)(少)(足)(够)(的)(新)(的)(多)(头)(头)(寸)(的)(供)(应)(,无)(力)(继)(续)(推)(动)(市)(场)(上)(升)(。”[1]这)(种)(分)(析)(是)(什)(么)(呢)(?它)(难)(道)(不)(是)(一)(种)(因)(果)(推)(论)(吗)(?——因)(为)(某)(种)(市)(场)(的)(动)(态)(原)(因)(,导)(致)(了)(某)(种)(市)(场)(形)(态)(结)(果)(的)(产)(生)(,每)(一)(个)(蜡)(烛)(都)(在)(解)(释)(解)(读)(最)(有)(可)(能)(在)(过)(程)(里)(发)(生)(的)(运)(作)(路)(径)(和)(最)(终)(产)(生)(这)(个)(结)(果)(的)(原)(因)(,虽)(然)(它)(是)(在)(告)(诉)(你)(最)(大)(概)(率)(会)(发)(生)(的)(事)(,但)(这)(本)(质)(是)(由)(因)(果)(逻)(辑)(出)(发)(推)(论)(而)(出)(的)(。
那)(么)(,也)(很)(显)(然)(,当)(这)(种)(因)(果)(逻)(辑)(发)(生)(变)(化)(时)(,必)(然)(需)(要)(修)(正)(原)(先)(的)(推)(论)(链)(条)(,很)(有)(可)(能)(相)(同)(的)(信)(号)(发)(生)(但)(对)(应)(的)(是)(不)(同)(的)(过)(程)(,那)(么)(后)(续)(的)(演)(绎)(就)(也)(会)(不)(同)(了)(。但)(这)(一)(切)(的)(前)(提)(都)(是)(因)(果)(链)(条)(的)(对)(应)(,需)(要)(投)(资)(者)(对)(市)(场)(和)(环)(境)(的)(变)(化)(很)(敏)(感)(。同)(样)(的)(,量)(化)(的)(系)(统)(也)(是)(需)(要)(不)(断)(修)(正)(完)(善)(的)(,一)(个)(量)(化)(系)(统)(可)(以)(在)(某)(段)(时)(间)(内)(拟)(合)(得)(相)(当)(出)(色)(,但)(却)(不)(一)(定)(在)(未)(来)(全)(部)(时)(段)(保)(持)(战)(绩)(,最)(关)(键)(还)(是)(看)(原)(先)(的)(这)(个)(依)(赖)(的)(逻)(辑)(基)(础)(有)(没)(有)(发)(生)(变)(化)(,如)(果)(没)(有)(及)(时)(跟)(进)(环)(境)(变)(化)(,更)(新)(其)(中)(因)(子)(,那)(么)(这)(个)(系)(统)(显)(然)(会)(在)(这)(次)(判)(断)(中)(呈)(现)(失)(误)(。根)(据)(每)(个)(人)(的)(实)(践)(经)(验)(和)(理)(解)(领)(悟)(程)(度)(不)(同)(,同)(一)(种)(方)(法)(论)(下)(,其)(实)(可)(能)(都)(是)(千)(人)(千)(面)(,各)(人)(搭)(建)(的)(运)(用)(系)(统)(不)(同)(,深)(化)(程)(度)(不)(同)(,最)(终)(得)(到)(的)(反)(馈)(也)(各)(不)(同)(。但)(如)(果)(人)(们)(抱)(着)(相)(关)(性)(的)(观)(点)(,跳)(过)(因)(果)(推)(论)(过)(程)(,而)(直)(接)(平)(移)(结)(果)(依)(样)(画)(葫)(芦)(,那)(么)(最)(终)(的)(结)(果)(很)(大)(概)(率)(可)(能)(都)(会)(显)(示)(为)(信)(号)(失)(灵)(。失)(灵)(的)(本)(质)(并)(不)(是)(这)(类)(工)(具)(方)(法)(本)(身)(的)(问)(题)(,而)(正)(是)(由)(于)(大)(多)(数)(运)(用)(者)(过)(于)(偏)(重)(相)(关)(性)(逻)(辑)(,而)(忽)(略)(因)(果)(逻)(辑)(。
因)(此)(,就)(笔)(者)(经)(验)(来)(说)(,不)(论)(是)(旁)(观)(者)(还)(是)(运)(用)(者)(,都)(可)(以)(更)(新)(一)(下)(对)(技)(术)(分)(析)(方)(法)(的)(理)(解)(。此)(后)(,这)(类)(工)(具)(就)(会)(对)(普)(通)(投)(资)(者)(的)(投)(资)(判)(断)(具)(有)(非)(常)(好)(的)(额)(外)(助)(益)(。
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