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时寒冰:中国经济走势的关键脉络

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月13日 13:48:28
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(王)(牧)(笛)(:现)(在)(大)(家)(都)(在)(说)(,国)(内)(经)(济)(不)(是)(很)(景)(气)(,可)(我)(看)(一)(些)(官)(方)(数)(字)(,比)(方)(说)(GDP增)(长)(率)(、CPI、PPI等)(指)(数)(,似)(乎)(感)(觉)(又)(还)(行)(。不)(知)(道)(时)(老)(师)(怎)(么)(看)(?您)(一)(般)(会)(通)(过)(哪)(些)(指)(标)(或)(者)(办)(法)(来)(观)(察)(一)(个)(经)(济)(体)(的)(经)(济)(状)(况)(呢)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:是)(这)(样)(的)(,关)(于)(国)(家)(的)(一)(些)(统)(计)(数)(据)(,我)(认)(为)(,不)(能)(单)(看)(一)(个)(数)(据)(,要)(综)(合)(比)(较)(起)(来)(看)(,因)(为)(只)(有)(这)(样)(才)(能)(对)(整)(个)(经)(济)(形)(势)(,作)(出)(一)(个)(相)(对)(完)(整)(和)(准)(确)(的)(认)(识)(。
另)(外)(一)(个)(观)(察)(途)(径)(,就)(是)(多)(同)(企)(业)(的)(朋)(友)(打)(交)(道)(,如)(果)(你)(有)(正)(在)(做)(企)(业)(的)(朋)(友)(,不)(妨)(问)(问)(他)(们)(的)(看)(法)(和)(感)(受)(,当)(然)(最)(好)(是)(多)(问)(几)(个)(不)(同)(地)(方)(、不)(同)(行)(业)(的)(朋)(友)(。应)(该)(说)(,他)(们)(掌)(握)(的)(这)(些)(一)(手)(资)(料)(和)(情)(况)(,比)(任)(何)(数)(据)(都)(有)(说)(服)(力)(。
所)(以)(,我)(一)(直)(坚)(持)(认)(为)(,我)(们)(做)(研)(究)(的)(时)(候)(,绝)(不)(可)(以)(只)(看)(那)(些)(已)(经)(被)(修)(整)(过)(的)(东)(西)(,还)(需)(要)(看)(一)(些)(原)(始)(的)(数)(据)(,因)(为)(这)(些)(数)(据)(更)(淳)(朴)(、更)(加)(的)(真)(实)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:能)(不)(能)(说)(您)(对)(当)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(理)(解)(呢)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:我)(前)(一)(段)(时)(间)(,做)(了)(一)(场)(手)(术)(,到)(了)(我)(这)(个)(年)(龄)(,有)(时)(候)(会)(很)(怀)(念)(年)(轻)(的)(时)(候)(,因)(为)(那)(会)(有)(很)(多)(非)(常)(非)(常)(美)(好)(的)(东)(西)(。那)(么)(,经)(济)(形)(势)(是)(不)(是)(也)(是)(这)(样)(呢)(?我)(们)(今)(天)(可)(能)(会)(觉)(得)(昨)(天)(更)(好)(一)(些)(,等)(到)(了)(明)(天)(可)(能)(又)(会)(开)(始)(怀)(念)(今)(天)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(,随)(着)(时)(间)(的)(推)(移)(,我)(们)(的)(怀)(旧)(感)(会)(越)(来)(越)(强)(。
其)(实)(当)(前)(的)(经)(济)(状)(况)(,我)(在)(2014年)(出)(版)(了)(一)(套)(书)(,叫)(《时)(寒)(冰)(说)(:未)(来)(二)(十)(年)(,经)(济)(大)(趋)(势)(》,那)(里)(边)(有)(不)(少)(预)(判)(。最)(近)(这)(套)(书)(在)(网)(上)(突)(然)(卖)(断)(货)(了)(,就)(是)(在)(京)(东)(这)(些)(平)(台)(上)(买)(不)(到)(自)(营)(单)(本)(了)(,很)(多)(人)(管)(平)(台)(要)(。为)(什)(么)(会)(出)(现)(这)(种)(情)(况)(呢)(,就)(是)(因)(为)(我)(当)(时)(写)(的)(一)(些)(分)(析)(正)(在)(变)(成)(现)(实)(。
现)(实)(是)(什)(么)(?现)(实)(就)(是)(在)(当)(前)(,债)(务)(逾)(期)(的)(压)(力)(非)(常)(大)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(也)(很)(大)(,具)(体)(到)(企)(业)(层)(面)(,普)(遍)(的)(感)(受)(是)(应)(收)(账)(款)(在)(增)(加)(,还)(债)(压)(力)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,经)(营)(状)(况)(大)(不)(如)(前)(。这)(就)(是)(整)(体)(上)(的)(一)(个)(形)(势)(。
但)(我)(认)(为)(,出)(现)(这)(样)(的)(形)(势)(,它)(是)(一)(种)(规)(律)(或)(者)(说)(是)(一)(种)(必)(然)(,就)(是)(说)(任)(何)(一)(个)(经)(济)(体)(,不)(管)(发)(达)(与)(否)(,都)(会)(有)(繁)(荣)(的)(阶)(段)(,有)(衰)(退)(的)(阶)(段)(,就)(好)(比)(一)(个)(人)(一)(样)(,有)(年)(轻)(的)(时)(候)(,必)(然)(也)(会)(有)(年)(老)(的)(时)(候)(。
毕)(竟)(我)(们)(已)(经)(高)(速)(发)(展)(那)(么)(多)(年)(了)(,不)(可)(能)(一)(直)(保)(持)(着)(那)(个)(速)(度)(去)(发)(展)(。发)(展)(到)(今)(天)(,我)(们)(不)(可)(避)(免)(地)(步)(入)(到)(了)(一)(个)(调)(整)(阶)(段)(,这)(个)(过)(程)(相)(对)(来)(说)(会)(比)(较)(痛)(苦)(。
春)(天)(还)(有)(些)(时)(日)(,大)(家)(不)(要)(急)(着)(抄)(底)(
王)(牧)(笛)(:日)(子)(不)(好)(过)(,首)(当)(其)(冲)(的)(就)(是)(股)(市)(。前)(不)(久)(,咱)(们)(的)(刘)(主)(席)(说)(春)(天)(要)(来)(了)(,不)(知)(道)(您)(又)(怎)(么)(看)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:怎)(么)(说)(呢)(?从)(气)(象)(上)(讲)(,现)(在)(这)(个)(阶)(段)(,应)(该)(是)(离)(冬)(天)(比)(较)(近)(,但)(还)(没)(有)(入)(冬)(,对)(吧)(?冬)(天)(以)(后)(才)(有)(春)(天)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(自)(然)(规)(律)(。所)(以)(,我)(觉)(着)(这)(个)(时)(间)(段)(,我)(们)(还)(是)(要)(按)(捺)(住)(自)(己)(躁)(动)(的)(心)(,不)(要)(急)(着)(去)(抄)(底)(。冬)(天)(都)(没)(来)(呢)(,现)(在)(抄)(底)(有)(点)(猴)(急)(了)(。
说)(到)(底)(部)(,大)(家)(喜)(欢)(用)(什)(么)(钻)(石)(底)(或)(者)(婴)(儿)(底)(,我)(告)(诉)(你)(,不)(存)(在)(的)(!从)(自)(然)(界)(来)(看)(,世)(界)(上)(所)(有)(的)(底)(都)(是)(淤)(泥)(,都)(是)(由)(一)(些)(动)(植)(物)(尸)(体)(堆)(积)(而)(成)(的)(,没)(有)(一)(个)(底)(是)(钻)(石)(构)(成)(的)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:熟)(悉)(时)(老)(师)(的)(朋)(友)(应)(该)(都)(知)(道)(,2015年)(的)(时)(候)(,您)(曾)(经)(通)(过)(一)(系)(列)(指)(标)(精)(准)(预)(判)(了)(股)(灾)(的)(到)(来)(。今)(年)(年)(初)(的)(时)(候)(,您)(也)(曾)(给)(出)(建)(议)(认)(为)(不)(是)(入)(市)(的)(好)(时)(机)(,让)(不)(少)(人)(及)(时)(止)(了)(损)(。有)(朋)(友)(问)(这)(个)(具)(体)(是)(怎)(么)(做)(到)(的)(呢)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:判)(断)(股)(市)(走)(向)(的)(,有)(很)(多)(具)(体)(指)(标)(,但)(我)(想)(说)(的)(是)(,咱)(们)(做)(股)(票)(分)(析)(的)(时)(候)(,不)(能)(只)(盯)(着)(股)(票)(和)(股)(市)(本)(身)(去)(看)(,因)(为)(股)(市)(走)(向)(是)(很)(多)(因)(素)(综)(合)(作)(用)(的)(一)(个)(结)(果)(。
比)(方)(说)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(看)(十)(年)(前)(GDP的)(增)(速)(情)(况)(,然)(后)(对)(应)(去)(看)(当)(时)(股)(市)(是)(怎)(么)(走)(的)(,而)(现)(在)(GDP的)(增)(速)(只)(有)(6.5%了)(,股)(市)(会)(不)(会)(产)(生)(一)(些)(相)(应)(的)(联)(动)(反)(应)(呢)(。2015年)(的)(那)(个)(判)(断)(,一)(共)(十)(五)(条)(指)(标)(,时)(间)(有)(限)(,我)(没)(法)(一)(条)(条)(去)(讲)(,而)(且)(里)(边)(涉)(及)(到)(的)(很)(多)(问)(题)(可)(能)(也)(不)(能)(大)(范)(围)(讨)(论)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:目)(前)(国)(家)(层)(面)(正)(在)(大)(力)(推)(进)(减)(税)(,股)(市)(会)(不)(会)(有)(一)(波)(希)(望)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:减)(税)(当)(然)(是)(利)(好)(,但)(现)(在)(减)(税)(的)(这)(个)(力)(度)(呢)(,还)(不)(够)(大)(,还)(不)(足)(以)(支)(撑)(起)(一)(个)(股)(市)(的)(春)(天)(来)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:您)(怎)(么)(看)(最)(近)(的)(个)(税)(调)(整)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:个)(税)(抵)(扣)(具)(体)(的)(规)(定)(也)(出)(来)(了)(,搞)(得)(比)(较)(复)(杂)(,操)(作)(起)(来)(难)(度)(不)(小)(。我)(想)(说)(的)(是)(,要)(想)(给)(大)(家)(减)(税)(,可)(简)(单)(了)(,免)(征)(额)(放)(大)(一)(点)(,起)(征)(点)(提)(高)(一)(点)(,就)(可)(以)(了)(。
房)(地)(产)(下)(行)(周)(期)(或)(许)(已)(经)(开)(启)(
王)(牧)(笛)(:您)(怎)(么)(看)(当)(前)(的)(房)(价)(走)(势)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:我)(聊)(房)(价)(的)(记)(录)(呢)(,比)(较)(黑)(暗)(一)(点)(,但)(是)(在)(这)(儿)(还)(是)(可)(以)(聊)(一)(些)(规)(律)(。我)(认)(为)(,支)(撑)(起)(楼)(市)(长)(时)(间)(上)(涨)(的)(一)(个)(很)(重)(要)(因)(素)(,是)(前)(些)(年)(实)(体)(经)(济)(整)(体)(运)(行)(情)(况)(不)(错)(。
也)(就)(是)(说)(,大)(家)(通)(过)(实)(体)(经)(济)(挣)(了)(钱)(,可)(以)(去)(交)(首)(付)(、还)(贷)(款)(,应)(该)(说)(这)(是)(房)(价)(最)(起)(码)(的)(一)(个)(支)(撑)(。现)(在)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,这)(个)(支)(撑)(一)(旦)(没)(有)(,房)(价)(很)(快)(就)(会)(下)(去)(。
最)(近)(房)(价)(整)(体)(上)(已)(经)(开)(启)(这)(种)(下)(行)(周)(期)(了)(,你)(看)(燕)(郊)(的)(房)(价)(已)(经)(跌)(了)(快)(50%了)(,而)(且)(我)(觉)(得)(这)(个)(态)(势)(还)(会)(持)(续)(比)(较)(长)(的)(时)(间)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:我)(们)(都)(知)(道)(,由)(于)(城)(市)(的)(不)(同)(定)(位)(,中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(其)(实)(面)(临)(着)(一)(个)(分)(化)(,就)(是)(说)(存)(在)(一)(二)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(一)(个)(差)(异)(。不)(知)(道)(怎)(么)(去)(理)(解)(现)(阶)(段)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(价)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:2015年)(的)(时)(候)(,我)(写)(过)(一)(篇)(论)(文)(,专)(门)(讨)(论)(的)(就)(是)(财)(富)(流)(动)(和)(房)(价)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(。
中)(国)(的)(这)(个)(财)(富)(流)(动)(,其)(实)(是)(一)(种)(从)(下)(往)(上)(的)(流)(动)(。因)(为)(作)(为)(城)(市)(来)(讲)(,越)(往)(上)(它)(的)(基)(础)(设)(施)(配)(套)(设)(施)(就)(越)(好)(,很)(自)(然)(地)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(财)(富)(就)(会)(转)(移)(到)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(。
这)(个)(时)(候)(,你)(可)(能)(会)(问)(,都)(财)(富)(输)(出)(了)(,为)(什)(么)(前)(两)(年)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(价)(还)(是)(蹭)(蹭)(涨)(呢)(?我)(认)(为)(,这)(都)(是)(国)(家)(为)(了)(去)(库)(存)(硬)(拉)(起)(来)(的)(,无)(论)(是)(经)(济)(层)(面)(,还)(是)(金)(融)(资)(本)(层)(面)(,它)(都)(是)(缺)(少)(支)(撑)(的)(。
所)(以)(,一)(旦)(房)(价)(开)(始)(下)(跌)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(会)(跌)(得)(更)(厉)(害)(,因)(为)(没)(有)(任)(何)(支)(撑)(。当)(然)(,这)(种)(下)(跌)(有)(一)(个)(前)(提)(,那)(就)(是)(货)(币)(稳)(定)(,如)(果)(货)(币)(本)(身)(出)(了)(大)(问)(题)(,那)(就)(不)(好)(说)(了)(。
我)(看)(好)(区)(块)(链)(,但)(不)(看)(好)(数)(字)(货)(币)(
王)(牧)(笛)(:人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(,最)(近)(这)(段)(时)(间)(又)(逼)(近)(七)(这)(个)(关)(口)(了)(,您)(怎)(么)(看)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:其)(实)(有)(关)(部)(门)(已)(经)(已)(经)(说)(过)(了)(,这)(个)(破)(不)(破)(七)(其)(实)(没)(有)(多)(大)(意)(义)(,就)(是)(说)(让)(大)(家)(放)(松)(对)(这)(个)(指)(标)(的)(重)(视)(程)(度)(,以)(后)(抱)(着)(更)(包)(容)(的)(心)(态)(来)(看)(待)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,不)(妨)(把)(尺)(度)(拉)(大)(一)(点)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:怎)(么)(看)(前)(段)(时)(间)(国)(内)(P2P的)(频)(繁)(暴)(雷)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:P2P刚)(出)(来)(的)(时)(候)(,我)(就)(告)(诉)(我)(身)(边)(的)(朋)(友)(不)(要)(介)(入)(,因)(为)(什)(么)(呢)(?我)(书)(上)(写)(得)(很)(清)(楚)(,现)(在)(处)(于)(一)(个)(经)(济)(下)(行)(的)(周)(期)(,在)(这)(个)(时)(候)(,任)(何)(高)(承)(诺)(的)(这)(种)(产)(品)(,你)(都)(不)(要)(碰)(,因)(为)(它)(不)(可)(能)(实)(现)(那)(个)(承)(诺)(,不)(可)(能)(达)(到)(你)(期)(望)(中)(的)(那)(么)(高)(的)(一)(个)(盈)(利)(目)(标)(,其)(结)(果)(只)(能)(是)(一)(场)(骗)(局)(,不)(光)(P2P,以)(后)(类)(似)(这)(种)(事)(情)(都)(不)(要)(介)(入)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:大)(家)(也)(很)(想)(知)(道)(您)(对)(区)(块)(链)(和)(数)(字)(货)(币)(的)(看)(法)(。
时)(寒)(冰)(:我)(认)(为)(,区)(块)(链)(是)(一)(个)(很)(有)(价)(值)(的)(研)(究)(和)(应)(用)(,对)(人)(们)(的)(生)(活)(的)(确)(有)(很)(好)(的)(一)(个)(帮)(助)(。但)(这)(个)(数)(字)(货)(币)(是)(很)(难)(真)(正)(成)(气)(候)(的)(,它)(只)(能)(是)(一)(个)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(东)(西)(。
2017年)(12月)(份)(的)(时)(候)(,我)(在)(《投)(资)(的)(艺)(术)(》课)(上)(明)(确)(讲)(到)(,比)(特)(币)(以)(后)(要)(下)(跌)(了)(。因)(为)(那)(个)(时)(候)(,美)(国)(推)(出)(了)(比)(特)(币)(期)(货)(,意)(图)(很)(明)(显)(,就)(是)(说)(上)(涨)(那)(一)(波)(钱)(我)(没)(赚)(,那)(么)(下)(跌)(这)(波)(钱)(我)(要)(挣)(了)(,所)(以)(从)(那)(时)(候)(开)(始)(,比)(特)(币)(开)(始)(跌)(得)(很)(惨)(了)(,对)(吧)(?我)(认)(为)(,还)(会)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(。
一)(句)(话)(,我)(对)(区)(块)(链)(比)(较)(看)(好)(,但)(是)(对)(于)(这)(个)(数)(字)(货)(币)(并)(不)(看)(好)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:未)(来)(您)(看)(好)(什)(么)(行)(业)(呢)(?就)(是)(什)(么)(行)(业)(值)(得)(创)(业)(或)(者)(拥)(抱)(。
时)(寒)(冰)(:相)(对)(好)(的)(行)(业)(啊)(,可)(能)(医)(疗)(、殡)(葬)(、典)(当)(这)(些)(行)(业)(会)(相)(对)(好)(一)(些)(。
王)(牧)(笛)(:最)(后)(一)(个)(问)(题)(,您)(如)(何)(看)(待)(互)(联)(网)(及)(其)(通)(讯)(行)(业)(,就)(是)(像)(腾)(讯)(和)(阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(这)(类)(互)(联)(网)(科)(技)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(还)(能)(继)(续)(持)(有)(吗)(?
时)(寒)(冰)(:互)(联)(网)(企)(业)(是)(这)(样)(的)(,不)(管)(将)(来)(如)(何)(发)(展)(,它)(永)(远)(脱)(离)(不)(了)(实)(体)(经)(济)(,它)(的)(繁)(荣)(是)(建)(立)(在)(实)(体)(经)(济)(繁)(荣)(的)(基)(础)(之)(上)(的)(,只)(是)(它)(加)(了)(杠)(杆)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(好)(一)(点)(,它)(会)(加)(倍)(的)(好)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(不)(好)(了)(,它)(也)(就)(失)(去)(了)(好)(的)(根)(基)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
以)(上)(内)(容)(来)(自)(于)(每)(周)(一)(次)(的)(功)(夫)(财)(经)(直)(播)(室)(。
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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