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物价短期波动不会影响货币政策

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月24日 10:14:28
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(  9月)(9日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(发)(布)(了)(8月)(份)(全)(国)(居)(民)(消)(费)(价)(格)(指)(数)((CPI)和)(工)(业)(生)(产)(者)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(指)(数)((PPI)。数)(据)(显)(示)(,8月)(份)(,CPI环)(比)(上)(涨)(0.4%,同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.8%;PPI环)(比)(上)(涨)(0.9%,同)(比)(上)(涨)(6.3%。
  专)(家)(表)(示)(,当)(前)(CPI同)(比)(涨)(幅)(升)(至)(年)(内)(高)(位)(,主)(要)(与)(季)(节)(性)(因)(素)(带)(来)(食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(有)(关)(;PPI同)(比)(涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(,与)(供)(需)(两)(端)(的)(变)(动)(密)(切)(相)(关)(。总)(的)(来)(看)(,物)(价)(水)(平)(符)(合)(预)(期)(,并)(不)(存)(在)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(,亦)(不)(会)(对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(构)(成)(影)(响)(。
  鸡)(蛋)(和)(鲜)(菜)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(影)(响)(大)(
  8月)(份)(,CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.8%,涨)(幅)(比)(上)(月)(扩)(大)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,处)(于)(年)(内)(高)(点)(,仅)(次)(于)(1月)(份)(2.5%的)(涨)(幅)(,但)(仍)(处)(于)(“1时)(代)(”。1月)(至)(8月)(平)(均)(,CPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(1.5%。
  国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(城)(市)(司)(高)(级)(统)(计)(师)(绳)(国)(庆)(分)(析)(说)(,从)(同)(比)(看)(,食)(品)(价)(格)(下)(降)(0.2%,降)(幅)(收)(窄)(0.9个)(百)(分)(点)(,影)(响)(CPI下)(降)(约)(0.04个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,猪)(肉)(价)(格)(下)(降)(13.4%,影)(响)(CPI下)(降)(0.39个)(百)(分)(点)(;鲜)(菜)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(9.7%,影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.22个)(百)(分)(点)(。非)(食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(2.3%,涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(1.81个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,医)(疗)(保)(健)(类)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(5.9%,居)(住)(类)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(2.7%,教)(育)(文)(化)(和)(娱)(乐)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(2.5%。
  据)(测)(算)(,在)(8月)(份)(1.8%的)(同)(比)(涨)(幅)(中)(,去)(年)(价)(格)(变)(动)(的)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)(和)(新)(涨)(价)(因)(素)(均)(约)(为)(0.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  8月)(份)(,CPI环)(比)(上)(涨)(0.4%,涨)(幅)(比)(上)(月)(扩)(大)(0.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,处)(于)(年)(内)(高)(点)(,仅)(次)(于)(1月)(份)(1.0%的)(涨)(幅)(。
  绳)(国)(庆)(表)(示)(,从)(环)(比)(看)(,食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(1.2%,影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.24个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,鸡)(蛋)(产)(量)(减)(少)(,价)(格)(上)(涨)(16.2%;高)(温)(多)(雨)(和)(强)(对)(流)(天)(气)(导)(致)(鲜)(菜)(储)(运)(成)(本)(增)(加)(,价)(格)(上)(涨)(8.5%;鸡)(肉)(和)(猪)(肉)(价)(格)(分)(别)(上)(涨)(3.0%和)(1.3%,上)(述)(四)(项)(合)(计)(影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.32个)(百)(分)(点)(。应)(季)(瓜)(果)(大)(量)(上)(市)(,鲜)(果)(价)(格)(下)(降)(4.2%;休)(渔)(期)(结)(束)(使)(水)(产)(品)(供)(应)(增)(加)(,水)(产)(品)(价)(格)(下)(降)(1.1%,两)(项)(合)(计)(影)(响)(CPI下)(降)(约)(0.09个)(百)(分)(点)(。非)(食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(0.2%,影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.18个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,汽)(油)(和)(柴)(油)(价)(格)(分)(别)(上)(涨)(2.7%和)(2.9%,医)(疗)(服)(务)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(0.9%,居)(住)(类)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(0.4%,上)(述)(四)(项)(合)(计)(影)(响)(CPI上)(涨)(约)(0.18个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  “季)(节)(性)(因)(素)(影)(响)(食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,是)(带)(动)(8月)(CPI上)(升)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(。”交)(通)(银)(行)(金)(融)(研)(究)(中)(心)(高)(级)(研)(究)(员)(刘)(学)(智)(说)(,夏)(天)(全)(国)(性)(高)(温)(和)(强)(降)(雨)(天)(气)(影)(响)(了)(蔬)(菜)(等)(农)(产)(品)(的)(生)(产)(和)(供)(应)(,使)(得)(食)(用)(农)(产)(品)(价)(格)(出)(现)(了)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(。总)(的)(来)(看)(,物)(价)(上)(升)(符)(合)(预)(期)(,并)(不)(存)(在)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(。
  PPI较)(上)(月)(扩)(大)(0.8个)(百)(分)(点)(
  8月)(份)(,PPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(6.3%,涨)(幅)(在)(连)(续)(3个)(月)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(之)(后)(,比)(上)(月)(扩)(大)(0.8个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  在)(主)(要)(行)(业)(中)(,涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(的)(有)(黑)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(和)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(,上)(涨)(29.1%;石)(油)(加)(工)(业)(,上)(涨)(16.8%;有)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(和)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(,上)(涨)(16.3%;石)(油)(和)(天)(然)(气)(开)(采)(业)(,上)(涨)(15.7%;非)(金)(属)(矿)(物)(制)(品)(业)(,上)(涨)(9.0%;化)(学)(原)(料)(和)(化)(学)(制)(品)(制)(造)(业)(,上)(涨)(8.4%。涨)(幅)(回)(落)(的)(有)(煤)(炭)(开)(采)(和)(洗)(选)(业)(,上)(涨)(32.1%。上)(述)(七)(大)(行)(业)(合)(计)(影)(响)(PPI同)(比)(上)(涨)(约)(5.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,占)(总)(涨)(幅)(的)(81.0%。
  刘)(学)(智)(分)(析)(说)(,PPI同)(比)(涨)(幅)(在)(连)(续)(3个)(月)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(之)(后)(反)(弹)(回)(升)(至)(6.3%,主)(要)(是)(近)(期)(黑)(色)(金)(属)(和)(有)(色)(金)(属)(类)(产)(品)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(所)(致)(。近)(期)(钢)(材)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(由)(于)(基)(建)(和)(部)(分)(制)(造)(业)(复)(苏)(拉)(动)(需)(求)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(是)(由)(于)(去)(产)(能)(和)(环)(保)(限)(产)(带)(来)(供)(给)(收)(缩)(。同)(时)(,也)(不)(排)(除)(大)(量)(资)(金)(流)(入)(初)(级)(产)(品)(市)(场)(的)(可)(能)(。
  据)(测)(算)(,在)(8月)(份)(6.3%的)(同)(比)(涨)(幅)(中)(,去)(年)(价)(格)(变)(动)(的)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)(约)(为)(4.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,新)(涨)(价)(因)(素)(约)(为)(1.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  从)(环)(比)(看)(,8月)(份)(PPI涨)(幅)(为)(0.9%,处)(于)(年)(内)(高)(点)(,比)(上)(月)(扩)(大)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  在)(调)(查)(的)(40个)(工)(业)(大)(类)(行)(业)(中)(,30个)(行)(业)(产)(品)(价)(格)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(,比)(上)(月)(增)(加)(10个)(。从)(主)(要)(行)(业)(看)(,涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(的)(有)(黑)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(和)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(、有)(色)(金)(属)(冶)(炼)(和)(压)(延)(加)(工)(业)(,分)(别)(上)(涨)(4.4%和)(3.7%,合)(计)(影)(响)(PPI上)(涨)(约)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(;由)(降)(转)(升)(的)(有)(石)(油)(加)(工)(业)(、石)(油)(和)(天)(然)(气)(开)(采)(业)(、煤)(炭)(开)(采)(和)(洗)(选)(业)(、化)(学)(原)(料)(和)(化)(学)(制)(品)(制)(造)(业)(,分)(别)(上)(涨)(3.3%、2.6%、1.3%和)(0.9%。
  PPI向)(CPI传)(导)(作)(用)(有)(限)(
  从)(未)(来)(走)(势)(看)(,下)(半)(年)(CPI上)(升)(幅)(度)(可)(能)(较)(为)(有)(限)(。刘)(学)(智)(分)(析)(说)(,影)(响)(CPI同)(比)(走)(势)(的)(仍)(主)(要)(是)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)(,而)(未)(来)(几)(个)(月)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)(逐)(步)(走)(低)(,年)(内)(CPI不)(会)(持)(续)(大)(幅)(攀)(升)(,全)(年)(CPI平)(均)(涨)(幅)(仍)(将)(低)(于)(去)(年)(。
  刘)(学)(智)(表)(示)(,PPI走)(势)(受)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(影)(响)(较)(大)(,未)(来)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(难)(以)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,不)(会)(进)(一)(步)(推)(升)(PPI。同)(时)(,由)(于)(需)(求)(对)(工)(业)(产)(品)(价)(格)(拉)(动)(作)(用)(难)(以)(显)(著)(增)(强)(,受)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)(走)(弱)(影)(响)(,下)(半)(年)(PPI同)(比)(涨)(幅)(将)(低)(于)(上)(半)(年)(。
  申)(万)(宏)(源)(评)(论)(称)(,尽)(管)(8月)(CPI显)(著)(回)(升)(,但)(在)(农)(业)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,年)(内)(食)(品)(CPI涨)(幅)(均)(将)(处)(于)(低)(位)(;而)(生)(猪)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(也)(难)(以)(持)(续)(,预)(计)(四)(季)(度)(会)(有)(所)(回)(落)(。环)(保)(限)(产)(仍)(将)(继)(续)(支)(撑)(PPI,经)(济)(和)(政)(策)(均)(不)(支)(持)(企)(业)(大)(幅)(扩)(张)(产)(能)(,周)(期)(行)(业)(的)(盈)(利)(有)(望)(延)(续)(。
  PPI上)(升)(有)(助)(于)(工)(业)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(改)(善)(。不)(过)(,不)(少)(人)(也)(担)(心)(会)(向)(下)(游)(传)(导)(,最)(终)(带)(来)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(。
  有)(关)(专)(家)(表)(示)(,当)(前)(国)(内)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(的)(上)(涨)(,既)(受)(国)(际)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(,也)(与)(国)(内)(推)(进)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(相)(关)(。目)(前)(国)(内)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(尚)(未)(明)(显)(向)(下)(游)(传)(导)(,这)(一)(方)(面)(是)(由)(于)(我)(国)(农)(产)(品)(供)(给)(比)(较)(充)(足)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(是)(我)(国)(工)(业)(消)(费)(品)(充)(足)(且)(分)(布)(均)(衡)(,市)(场)(化)(程)(度)(很)(高)(,可)(以)(很)(好)(地)(抵)(消)(PPI波)(动)(带)(来)(的)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(。因)(此)(,尽)(管)(CPI和)(PPI都)(有)(上)(升)(,但)(不)(存)(在)(明)(显)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(,物)(价)(波)(动)(对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(不)(会)(构)(成)(影)(响)(。
  (责)(编)(:马)(春)(阳)()
)


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